September 2022 Pricing Commentary

Entering the month of September, it appeared to many investors that North American equity markets were deeply oversold and due for a positive bounce. This was, in fact, the case as equity markets by early/mid-September were showing positive investment returns between 3.5 – 3.75%.

Notwithstanding the extremely oversold conditions of investment assets including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals, the firming price trend reversed course with North American indices ending the month with meaningful September declines between 4.5 – 10%. No sector was left unscathed as interest rates rose, impacting bonds precipitously and both common stock and commodity prices plummeted.

Having just entered the final quarter of 2022, we believe that securities markets have significantly overreacted on the downside.

Given the extreme negative market sentiment and investor fears, we believe that any unexpected positive economic, geopolitical, central bank or inflation news could precipitate and propel a massive snapback of equity prices. This occurrence could produce a significant revaluation of common stock prices similar to previous market recoveries such as the meltdowns of 1987 and 2008/2009.

More importantly, we are confident with our ABC portfolio holdings and positioning of strong, diversified, large capitalization, dividend paying industry leaders, which can withstand the present market turmoil. We expect our portfolios to outperform with the eventual price recovery.

Moreover, as we enter the month of October, positive seasonal trends now provide a powerful tailwind for common stocks. Historically, the period from October into the spring has produced a significant proportion of the years’ investment return. Positive seasonality combined with the extreme bearish sentiment enveloping the market today should portend meaningful investment outperformance in the near future.

In conclusion, contrary to the present investment doom and gloom we remain optimistic as ever with regard to equities and our high-grade investment portfolios. We expect the recent peaking of inflation will lead to an eventual central bank pivot and a return to material positive investment returns entering 2023.

Irwin A. Michael Signature

Irwin A. Michael, President
I.A. Michael Investment Counsel Ltd.

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